Qantas: Forecast No International Flights until July 2021, Profit down 91% on previous year

Qantas Plane

Qantas has released their FY20 Financial Report

 

Key points:

  • Underlying Profit Before Tax: $124 million (down 91%)
  • Statutory Loss Before Tax: $2.7 billion (majority of which is non-cash, including aircraft
    write downs)
  • $4 billion revenue impact from COVID crisis in 2H20
  • Operating cash flow: $1.1 billion
  • Liquidity of $4.5 billion providing considerable buffer to manage uncertainty
  • Significant progress on initial steps of three-year recovery plan

OUTLOOK

The Group’s recovery plan allows for a high level of flexibility given uncertainty on border restrictions and travel demand, while also acknowledging the critical nature of air transport to the Australian economy. Key assumptions and indicators at this stage include:

Group Domestic

  • Given current border restrictions, 20 per cent of pre-COVID Group Domestic capacity is scheduled for August.
  • Recent sales activity shows high levels of latent travel demand when restrictions are eased.

Group International

  • International network unlikely to restart before July 2021; possibly earlier for Trans Tasman.

Loyalty

  • Expected to continue strong cash flow contribution in FY21.
  • Recovery in domestic travel an opportunity to increase reward seats and maintain member engagement.
  • Actively growing opportunity to earn points on the ground, but this is linked to broader consumer confidence levels.

Qantas Freight

  • Domestic demand expected to remain strong due to growth in e-commerce.
  • Strong international freight demand expected to continue but not at peak levels seen in 4Q20.

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